Premier League Predictions
Our Premier League predictions are derived from best-price odds, not gut feel. Across a 258-selection sample, Ladbrokes returned the top price on 54.7% of markets and Unibet on 56.0% (243 selections), the two clearest value leaders for Australian bettors on this competition. Average margins sit tight — Sportsbet 4.91%, PointsBet 5.64%, Unibet 5.84%, Ladbrokes 5.82% — while bet365 runs wider at 7.44%. Below we break down the upcoming round match by match, showing the implied favourite and where the sharpest price currently sits.
How we build these predictions
We convert the best available odds into implied probability and let the market price the outcome. When one bookmaker consistently posts the top line, that price carries less margin and a truer probability estimate.
On our Premier League sample, Ladbrokes and Unibet dominate best-price frequency (54.7% and 56.0% respectively). That doesn't mean every price at those two books is best — it means over a large sample they surface the sharpest number most often. Sportsbet posts the lowest average margin in the group (4.91%) but tops price on just 15.9% of sampled markets, so it's strong on select lines rather than across the board.
We do not publish tracked win-rate claims. These are probability reads from live pricing, not guarantees.
Round preview: implied favourites and best prices
Prices below are the best sampled line per outcome. Times are UTC.
- Arsenal v Coventry City (21 Aug): Arsenal heavy favourites at 1.18 (Ladbrokes). Draw 7.50 (bet365), Coventry 16.0 (Unibet). Implied Arsenal win probability above 84%.
- Hull City v Manchester United (22 Aug): United favoured away at 1.40, draw 4.80, Hull 7.50 — all best at Ladbrokes.
- Everton v Crystal Palace (22 Aug): Close read. Everton 2.15 (Ladbrokes), draw 3.50 (Ladbrokes), Palace 3.40 (Unibet). Home edge, but a live draw.
- Ipswich Town v Sunderland (22 Aug): Near coin-flip. Ipswich 2.70 (Ladbrokes) v Sunderland 2.60 (Unibet), draw 3.30 (Ladbrokes).
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds United (22 Aug): Forest 2.25 (Unibet), draw 3.50 (Ladbrokes), Leeds 3.20 (bet365).
- Brentford v Tottenham (22 Aug): Tight. Brentford 2.40 (Ladbrokes), draw 3.60 (Unibet), Spurs 2.875 (bet365).
- Brighton v Aston Villa (23 Aug): Brighton 2.25, draw 3.60, Villa 2.90 — all best at Ladbrokes. Slight home lean.
- Manchester City v Bournemouth (23 Aug): City 1.45 (Unibet), draw 5.00 (Unibet), Bournemouth 6.00 (Ladbrokes). Implied City probability near 69%.
- Newcastle v Liverpool (23 Aug): Liverpool favoured away at 1.95 (Ladbrokes), Newcastle 3.60 (Unibet), draw 4.00 (Unibet).
- Fulham v Chelsea (24 Aug): Chelsea 2.10 (Ladbrokes) v Fulham 3.30 (Unibet), draw 3.70 (Unibet). Away lean.
Where the value sits this round
Ladbrokes holds the top price on the majority of these ten fixtures — home, draw and away lines at Everton, Ipswich, Brighton and the full Hull v United market. Unibet leads on Man City, Newcastle and Fulham selections. bet365 surfaces best on scattered outcomes (Arsenal draw, Leeds, Spurs) despite its wider average margin, which reflects line-specific pricing rather than book-wide value.
For short-priced favourites like Arsenal (1.18) and Man City (1.45), the margin difference between books is small in dollar terms. Value hunting matters most on the balanced fixtures — Ipswich v Sunderland and Brentford v Spurs — where a few points of price swings expected return meaningfully.
Compare live lines yourself before backing a selection, since prices move on team news.
Margin and price context
Average bookmaker margin sets the ceiling on value. On our sampled Premier League markets:
- Sportsbet: 4.91% (best-price share 15.9%, 44 sampled)
- PointsBet: 5.64% (23.5%, 51)
- Ladbrokes: 5.82% (54.7%, 258)
- Unibet: 5.84% (56.0%, 243)
- Neds: 5.89% (35.6%, 59)
- TAB: 6.05% (27.1%, 59)
- betr: 6.19% (12.5%, 56)
- bet365: 7.44% (23.3%, 30)
Sportsbet's low margin is attractive, but its smaller best-price frequency means you'll often find a sharper number at Ladbrokes or Unibet. Holding accounts at both covers the widest slice of top prices on this competition. All operators listed are licensed for wagering in Australia under state and territory authorities; the minimum betting age is 18.
