Premier League Predictions

These Premier League predictions are built from odds data, not gut feel. Across our sampled Premier League markets, Betfair returns the highest best-price share at roughly 48.6% and the lowest average margin at about 4.6% — meaning the implied probabilities below lean on the sharpest pricing available in the United Kingdom. Every operator referenced holds a UK Gambling Commission licence, and the analysis focuses on where the value sits and why.

Sat 10 Oct, 12:30Arsenal vs Leeds UnitedSat 10 Oct, 15:00Aston Villa vs BrentfordSat 10 Oct, 15:00Chelsea vs BournemouthSat 10 Oct, 15:00Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove AlbionSat 10 Oct, 15:00Ipswich Town vs FulhamSat 10 Oct, 17:30Manchester United vs Tottenham HotspurSun 11 Oct, 14:00Crystal Palace vs Nottingham ForestSun 11 Oct, 14:00Hull City vs EvertonSun 11 Oct, 16:30Liverpool vs Manchester CityMon 12 Oct, 20:00Coventry City vs Newcastle UnitedSat 17 Oct, 12:30Everton vs ChelseaSat 17 Oct, 15:00Brentford vs LiverpoolSat 17 Oct, 15:00Fulham vs Hull CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00Manchester City vs Ipswich Town

How these predictions are modelled

We convert best-available decimal odds into implied probabilities, then strip out the bookmaker margin to estimate a fairer chance for each outcome. The tighter the margin, the closer a price sits to true value.

Across the sample, average margins range from about 4.6% (Betfair) to over 8% (Virgin Bet, LiveScore Bet). Ladbrokes (5.9%), Coral (5.7%) and Unibet (5.9%) also price competitively on Premier League markets. Because Betfair supplies the best price on nearly half of sampled selections, most of the fixture prices quoted below trace back to it.

For a fuller side-by-side view, see our betting odds United Kingdom hub and market movers tracker.

Upcoming Premier League fixtures — best-price read

Prices shown are the best available at the time of sampling. Implied favourites are derived directly from those odds.

Arsenal vs Coventry City — home 1.20 (Betfair). Implied home probability ~83%; a heavy favourite with limited outright value.
Hull City vs Manchester United — away 1.46 (Betfair), home 8.60. United priced as clear favourites (~68% implied).
Everton vs Crystal Palace — home 2.24, draw & away both 3.55 (Betfair). One of the tightest three-way markets on the card.
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland — home 2.82 (Betfair), away 2.78 (Betfair), draw 3.50 (BoyleSports). Effectively a coin-flip between the two sides.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United — home 2.38 (Betfair), a modest home lean (~42% implied).
Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur — home 2.54, away 2.88 (Betfair). Marginal home edge.
Brighton vs Aston Villa — home 2.32 (Betfair), Brighton the shaded favourite (~43%).
Manchester City vs Bournemouth — home 1.50 (Betfair), away 7.00 (Coral). City strong favourites; note Coral supplies the best away price.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool — away 1.97 (Betfair), home 3.95. Liverpool priced as favourites (~51%).
Fulham vs Chelsea — away 2.10 (Ladbrokes), home 3.60 (Betfair). Chelsea favoured, with Ladbrokes offering the sharpest away line here.

Where the best Premier League prices sit

Best-price share is the single clearest indicator of where value concentrates. On our Premier League sample:

Betfair — ~48.6% best-price share, ~4.6% margin. The dominant source of top prices.
Coral — ~27.1% share, ~5.7% margin.
Ladbrokes — ~20.2% share, ~5.9% margin.
Sky Bet — ~15.7% share; Unibet ~15.2%; 888sport ~15.1%; BetMGM ~14.8%.
William Hill — ~14.7% share.

Note that a low best-price share does not mean an operator is poor overall — it means it less often tops a specific market. bet365 (rated 8.8 for odds, 9.6 for market coverage) scores highly on depth and live capability even where its headline share on this sample is lower.

Reading margin vs market depth

A sharp margin only helps if the market you want is priced. Betfair, bet365 and BetMGM combine tight or competitive pricing with broad coverage, which matters for correct-score, Bet Builder and player-prop angles beyond the match result.

Sky Bet (8.4) and BetMGM (8.5) rate strongest for Bet Builder among UK operators here, useful if your prediction is a combination rather than a single outcome. For same-game combinations, BetMGM lists Same Game Parlay in its feature set.

Compare full feature and price profiles via our comparisons page and the Bet Builder specialists list.